General research for information only — not legal, tax, or investment advice. Cambodian law and markets change; figures are indicative, so verify current detail with a qualified local professional before you act.
Phnom Penh is the clearest case study in Cambodian property of a market that
got ahead of its demand and is still working through the consequences. For a
buyer in 2026, that is not automatically bad news — repriced markets are where
durable yields are found — but only if you read the supply picture honestly.
Citations are marked [S-NNN]; the source list is at the end.
We track Phnom Penh prices and yields each quarter in the Cambodia Price & Yield Index — see the latest 2026 Q1 briefing.
How we got here — the supply numbers
The scale of the build-out is the whole story. Phnom Penh’s condominium stock stood at roughly 20,000 units in 2019; by the end of 2024 it had reached around 60,000 units, growing at roughly 20% a year, with a further ~20,000 units due to complete by end-2026 — putting the city near 85,000 units by the start of 2027 [S-026]. Some market counts run higher still (estimates around 80,000 units during 2025 circulate, attributed to CBRE Cambodia data); the spread between counts is a methodology difference — what gets counted as “completed” and “condominium” — and is itself a reminder of how loose this market’s data is. Either way, the direction is undisputed: supply tripled or more in five years.
Much of that pipeline was aimed at foreign — especially regional — investors. The pandemic then removed both construction-driven rental demand and a large share of the speculative buyer base at once, leaving completed and near-complete units competing for a thinner pool of tenants.
The correction shows up in prices: from roughly $1,500/sqm in 2012, average condo prices peaked around $3,000/sqm in 2019, and by 2025 sat 15–20% below that peak [S-026]. CBRE Cambodia’s mid-2024 review put headline condo pricing from about $2,500/sqm [S-028].
Oversupply does not destroy a market. It transfers pricing power from sellers to buyers and from developers to tenants. The question is always: at what price does the asset make sense as a rental, ignoring resale entirely?
There is one genuinely constructive supply signal: deliveries are slowing. Around 3,200 new units were scheduled for completion in 2025 — roughly 25% fewer than 2024’s deliveries [S-027] — and CBRE counted just 2,200 new units launched in the first half of 2024 [S-028]. Developers have throttled the pipeline, which is how absorption eventually happens.
What the yield picture looks like
With prices soft and rents holding better than capital values, gross yields on well-located Phnom Penh condos have widened relative to the boom years. Advertised yields of 6.5–8% are common in 2025–26 marketing — frequently labelled “net” [S-026]. Treat that label with suspicion. Citywide occupancy is estimated at 78–82%, with well-managed prime buildings above 85% [S-027], and average rental vacancy around 15% per project [S-026] — numbers that are simply incompatible with the “one month a year” vacancy assumption baked into most advertised yield math.
The honest underwriting has three deductions the brochures skip:
- Vacancy. Budget for the observed ~15% average [S-026], not the optimistic month-a-year. Some saturated submarkets run materially higher.
- Service charges & sinking fund. Condo management fees in Phnom Penh are not trivial and vary widely in quality.
- Management & turnover costs. Remote, foreign landlords pay for management, and tenant turnover in this market is frequent.
Run those numbers and a “7.5% net” brochure yield lands meaningfully lower. That is not a reason to walk away — it is the actual number you should underwrite to. Our rental yields guide walks through the full gross-to-net arithmetic.
Where the floor is — and isn’t
Two things tend to be true at once in a repriced market:
- Generic, mid-tier supply in saturated districts has limited pricing support. There is a lot of it ($1,300–1,900/sqm mid-range stock is the bulk of the pipeline [S-026]), and more can be built.
- Genuinely scarce assets — well-managed buildings in established central locations with real owner-occupier and expat-tenant demand — have held value far better. The high-end segment even showed a price recovery in late 2025, with reported average sales prices up around 5% year-on-year to above $2,800/sqm in Q4 2025 [S-027].
The mistake is treating “Phnom Penh condos” as one asset. The spread between the best and worst submarkets is the whole story — see our BKK1 vs Toul Kork head-to-head for what that spread looks like street by street.
The 2026 outlook, honestly stated
Market forecasts for the next 12 months cluster around flat to +3% for well-located stock and −2% to −5% for oversupplied commodity condos [S-027], with several observers expecting a broadly stable 2025–2028 as the throttled pipeline lets existing inventory absorb [S-026]. Construction approvals remain heavily housing-weighted — of 1,642 projects approved nationally in H1 2024, 1,346 were housing developments [S-028] — so the medium-term supply tap is slowed, not shut.
Treat all such forecasts as scenarios, not promises. The data quality in this market does not support precision, and anyone quoting decimal-point forecasts is selling something.
What we would underwrite to in 2026
- Buy for net yield you can defend, not capital-growth projections.
- Prefer proven, well-managed buildings over the cheapest new launch.
- Stress-test for higher vacancy than the agent quotes — the citywide average is ~15%, not 8% [S-026].
- Treat any capital appreciation as upside, not the thesis.
Phnom Penh in 2026 rewards the patient income buyer and punishes the buyer chasing the next boom. The numbers support the former; they do not yet support the latter.
Sources
- [S-026] IPS Cambodia — Phnom Penh Condo Market Trends 2025 — supply growth 20k→60k→~85k units; price history and 15–20% correction; ~15% vacancy; segment pricing; advertised yields.
- [S-027] CambodiaProperty.asia — Phnom Penh Condo Market Trends 2026 — 2025 completions slowdown (−25%); occupancy 78–82%; Q4 2025 high-end recovery; 12-month price forecast.
- [S-028] PCInsider — 15 Statistics for the Phnom Penh Real Estate Market — CBRE Cambodia Mid-Year Review 2024 figures ($2,500/sqm headline pricing; 2,200 H1-2024 launches); MLMUPC construction-approval counts.
A data honesty note: Phnom Penh market statistics vary meaningfully between sources — total-supply estimates alone differ by ~20,000 units depending on methodology. Where sources conflict, we present the range and say so. Portal data (IPS, CambodiaProperty.asia) describes direction reliably; treat point estimates as indicative.